NAR economist offers upbeat spin to the problems in U.S. market

I know now that I am not “dreaming” and that it is true the market is turning and not only in Palm Springs area…This might be my best year ever is sales of real restate…

I must be doing something right or is that just luck ? Or I am not living on the same planet ? 

National Association of Realtors chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun delivered a pep talk last week to agents in Miami, which he described as “one of the ground zeroes” for the downturn in the United States.
Dr. Lawrence Yun“The downturn is a short term phenomenon,” Yun told attendees at the Realtor Association of Greater Miami & the Beaches’ annual international congress, assuring the audience that key economic indicators remain strong. “The good news is that [the market] appears to have stabilized,” the NAR economist said. Valuations in mid-level cities like Miami, Las Vegas and Phoenix will grow 10 to 50 percent over the next five years, Yun predicted, a sharp contrast to the forecasts of continued declines offered by some economists. (Although the financial community might not be inspired by the possibility of a paltry 10 percent increase over five years.)

Yun warned of “pessimism in the marketplace,” suggesting that the media and the daily negative headlines are driving down the market. “Psychology” can turn into a “self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said. “You have to fight the self-fulfilling negative psychology in the marketplace.” Yun was a bit vague on data to support his optimism. He touted an un-sourced survey which suggested that “77 percent of homeowners” don’t believe prices will decline, which is akin to basing the weather report on news that 77 percent of the people don’t think it will rain. (And it also suggests that people are not all that pessimistic, despite that darn media.) Part of the reason for the stabilization in Florida, Yun noted, was an 80 percent drop in housing starts. That’s reduced the supply of shiny new Mediterranean villas, but it hardly represents a healthy industry. And he didn’t attempt to predict the fate of what he called “superstar cities,” including Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco, which he said “defy gravity.” But he did assure the audience that “99 percent of markets will have a higher value in five years.” 

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