I just spent two hours this morning listening to Mr. Yun , the chief economist for NAR (National Association of Realtors) who came to the Desert to speak in front of 425 Realtors eager to hear about THE TURN OF THE MARKET –and WHEN ????
How very appropriate on the day where everybody in this nation is waiting for the Stimulus Bill to pass !!
Mr. Yun pointed out quite a number of facts that I would like to share with you , explaining why the “Stimulus packet ” is essential to survival
- The base of the economy is the Housing Market : its recovery will get the whole economy going.
- If the stimulus passes this week end, it will take until summer-early autumn to really be in place and that will bring a significant change for the better.
- All the fence sitters will start buying and that will :
1. Offset the negative psychology
2. Lower the inventory
3. Bring optimism
4. Show the light at the end of the tunnel
5. This will be a confidence buster.
- Our times cannot be compared to the “Great Depression” – at that time we had more than 25% unemployment which is not the case today
- The interest rates are the lowest in 50 years – 5% and possibly less…
- We finished the first round of foreclosures but are on our way to the 2nd round.
- We are seeing an upturn for number of sales (this should build up the confidence)
- We are seeing multiple bidding on low priced properties and buyers that do not “get in” keep on trying different ones until they get a deal. Does that mean that we have hit bottom ?
- If the stimulus includes the real estate package suggested by the Senate, it will lower the market inventory
- New homes sales numbers should be read properly. The number is at its lowest because the building has practically stopped and therefore, the sales because of lack of inventory. That means that the resale prices will go up.
I found this presentation refreshing in a way that IT IS NOT ALL BAD and that by 2010 with the Proper Stimulus in place we should see a real Rebound of the market and rising in prices.